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投资 | 50个关于投资的不幸真相

发表于 2020-9-16 14:07 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


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投资 | 50个关于投资的不幸真相


本文为原创翻译,原标题《50 Unfortunate Truths About Investing》,发于2012年11月14日。作者Morgan Housel,是Collaborative Fund的合伙人,也是The Motley Fool及《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)的前专栏作家。

Sorry, but ...


1. Saying "I'll be greedy when others are fearful" is much easier than actually doing it.

1. “别人恐惧时我贪婪”,这句话说起来容易,真正做起来难。

2. The gulf between a great company and a great investment can be extraordinary.

2. 一家伟大公司和一笔伟大投资之间的鸿沟可能是超乎寻常的。

3. Markets go through at least one big pullback every year, and one massive one every decade. Get used to it. It's just what they do.

3. 市场至少每年都经历一次大幅回调,每十年一次巨幅回调。习惯它吧。它们就是这样的。

4. There is virtually no accountability in the financial pundit arena. People who have been wrong about everything for years still draw crowds.

4. 在金融专家这个圈子里,几乎没有任何问责。有些人多年来对所有事情都判断错了,却依然吸引着不少人群。

5. As Erik Falkenstein says: "In expert tennis, 80% of the points are won, while in amateur tennis, 80% are lost. The same is true for wrestling, chess, and investing: Beginners should focus on avoiding mistakes, experts on making great moves."

5.  正如Erik Falkenstein所说:“在专业网球比赛中,80%的分数是赢来的,而在业余网球比赛中,80%的分数是输掉的。同样的道理也适用于摔跤、国际象棋以及投资:初学者应该专注于避免错误,而专家则在于做出卓越的行动。”

6. There are tens of thousands of professional money managers. Statistically, a handful of them have been successful by pure chance. Which ones? I don't know, but I bet a few are famous.

6. 我们数以万计的职业资金经理。统计上看,他们中有一小部分人获得成功完全靠的运气。哪些人?我不知道,但我敢打赌有些挺出名的。

7. On that note, some investors who we call "legendary" have barely, if at all, beaten an index fund over their careers. On Wall Street, big wealth isn't indicative of big returns.

7. 关于这点,有一些我们称之为“传奇”的投资者在他们职业生涯中几乎没有——假如还有的话——击败过指数基金。在华尔街,巨额财富并不意味着高额回报。

8. During recessions, elections, and Federal Reserve policy meetings, people become unshakably certain about things they know nothing about.

8. 在经济衰退、选举以及美联储政策会议期间,人们对他们一无所知的事情变得坚定不移的确信。

9. The more comfortable an investment feels, the more likely you are to be slaughtered.

9. 一笔投资感觉起来越舒服,你就越有可能被宰。

10. Time-saving tip: Instead of trading penny stocks, just light your money on fire. Same for leveraged ETFs.

10. 节省时间的小贴士:与其交易低价股,不如把你的钱直接烧了。杠杆ETF也是一样。

11. Not a single person in the world knows what the market will do in the short run. End of story.

11. 这世界上没有任何一个人知道市场在短期内会怎么样。讲完了。

12. The analyst who talks about his mistakes is the guy you want to listen to. Avoid the guy who doesn't -- his are much bigger.

12. 谈论自己错误的分析师才是你真正想听从的人。避开那个不谈论自己错误的人——他的错误要大得多。

13. You don't understand a big bank's balance sheet. The people running the place and their accountants don't, either.

13. 你看不懂一家大银行的资产负债表。管理那家银行的人以及他们的会计也同样不懂。

14. There will be seven to 10 recessions over the next 50 years. Don't act surprised when they come.

14. 未来50年内会有7到10次衰退。当它们到来时,可别表现得很惊讶。

15. Thirty years ago, there was one hour of market TV per day. Today there's upwards of 18 hours. What changed isn't the volume of news, but the volume of drivel.

15. 三十年前,电视上每天有一个小时的市场报道。今天有超过18个小时。改变的并不是新闻的数量,而是胡言乱语的数量。

16. Warren Buffett's best returns were achieved when markets were much less competitive. It's doubtful anyone will ever match his 50-year record.

16. 沃伦·巴菲特的最佳回报率是在市场竞争少得多的时候达成的。很怀疑有任何人能匹敌他50年的纪录。

17. Most of what is taught about investing in school is theoretical nonsense. There are very few rich professors.


18. The more someone is on TV, the less likely his or her predictions are to come true. (U.C. Berkeley psychologist Phil Tetlock has data on this).

18. 一个人上电视越多,他或她的预言成真的可能性就越小。(加州大学伯克利分校的心理学家Phil Teltlock有这方面的数据。)

19. Related: Trust no one who is on CNBC more than twice a week.

19. 相关的:不要相信任何一周在CNBC出现两次以上的人。

20. The market doesn't care how much you paid for a stock. Or your house. Or what you think is a "fair" price.

20. 市场并不关心你买一只股票花了多少钱。或者你的房子。或者你所认为“公平”的价格。

21. The majority of market news is not only useless, but also harmful to your financial health.

21. 大部分市场新闻不仅没用,而且对你的财务健康有害。

22. Professional investors have better information and faster computers than you do. You will never beat them short-term trading. Don't even try.

22. 职业投资者有比你更好的信息和更快的电脑。短期交易你永远赢不了他们。试都别试。

23. How much experience a money manager has doesn't tell you much. You can underperform the market for an entire career. And many have.

23. 一个资金经理有多少经验并不能说明什么。你可能在整个职业生涯跑输市场。很多人就是这样。

24. The decline of trading costs is one of the worst things to happen to investors, as it made frequent trading possible. High transaction costs used to cause people to think hard before they acted.

24. 交易成本的下降对投资者而言是最糟糕的事情之一,因为它令频繁交易成为可能。过去,高昂的买卖成本会让人们三思而后行。

25. Professional investing is one of the hardest careers to succeed at, but it has low barriers to entry and requires no credentials. That creates legions of "experts" who have no idea what they are doing. People forget this because it doesn't apply to many other fields.

25. 职业投资是最难取得成功的职业之一,但它的准入门槛很低,也不需要资格证书。这就产生了大批根本不知道自己在做什么的“专家”。人们常常忘记这一点,因为它对其他许多领域并不适用。

26. Most IPOs will burn you. People with more information than you have want to sell. Think about that.

26. 大多数IPO都会烧伤你。比你拥有更多信息的人想要卖出。想想这个。

27. When someone mentions charts, moving averages, head-and-shoulders patterns, or resistance levels, walk away.

27. 当某人提到图表、移动平均线、头肩模式或者阻力位时,走开吧。

28. The phrase "double-dip recession" was mentioned 10.8 million times in 2010 and 2011, according to Google. It never came. There were virtually no mentions of "financial collapse" in 2006 and 2007. It did come.

28. 据谷歌(Google),“双底衰退”一词在2010年和2011年被提及1080万次。它从未发生。2006年和2007年“金融崩溃”几乎没有任何提及。它确实发生了。

29. The real interest rate on 20-year Treasuries is negative, and investors are plowing money into them. Fear can be a much stronger force than arithmetic.

29. 20年期美国国债的实际利率为负,而投资者们正将资金投入其中。恐惧可能是一种远比算法更强大的力量。

30. The book Where Are the Customers' Yachts? was written in 1940, and most still haven't figured out that financial advisors don't have their best interest at heart.

30. 《客户的游艇在哪里》这本书写于1940年,但多数人仍然未理解到,金融顾问并没有将他们的最大利益放在心上。

31. The low-cost index fund is one of the most useful financial inventions in history. Boring but beautiful.

31. 低成本指数基金是历史上最有用的金融发明之一。乏味但美好。

32. The best investors in the world have more of an edge in psychology than in finance.

32. 世界上最好的投资者在心理上更有优势,甚于在金融上。

33. What markets do day to day is overwhelmingly driven by random chance. Ascribing explanations to short-term moves is like trying to explain lottery numbers.

33. 市场每天的行为完全是随机因素驱动的。对短期走势的归因解释就像试图解释彩票号码一样。

34. For most, finding ways to save more money is more important than finding great investments.

34. 对多数人而言,找办法多存点钱比找好的投资更加重要。

35. If you have credit card debt and are thinking about investing in anything, stop. You will never beat 30% annual interest.

35. 如果你有信用卡债务,还正在考虑投资任何东西,打住。你永远敌不过30%的年化利率。

36. A large portion of share buybacks are just offsetting shares issued to management as compensation. Managers still tout the buybacks as "returning money to shareholders."

36. 很大一部分股票回购只是为了弥补作为报酬向管理层发行的股票。经理们仍然将回购标榜为“将钱还给股东”。

37. The odds that at least one well-known company is insolvent and hiding behind fraudulent accounting are high.

37. 至少有一家知名的公司资不抵债并隐藏在会计造假背后的可能性很高。

38. Twenty years from now the S&P 500 will look nothing like it does today. Companies die and new ones emerge.


39. Twelve years ago General Motors was on top of the world and Apple was laughed at. A similar shift will occur over the next decade, but no one knows to what companies.

39. 十二年前,通用汽车正处于世界之巅,而苹果为人嘲笑。未来十年会有类似的转变发生,但没人知道将对哪家公司。

40. Most would be better off if they stopped obsessing about Congress, the Federal Reserve, and the president and focused on their own financial mismanagement.


41. For many, a house is a large liability masquerading as a safe asset.

41. 对很多人而言,房子是伪装成安全资产的一笔巨额负债。

42. The president has much less influence over the economy than people think.

42. 总统对经济的影响比人们所想的要小得多。

43. However much money you think you'll need for retirement, double it. Now you're closer to reality.

43. 不管你认为退休将需要多少钱,再把它翻个番。现在你离现实就更近点了。

44. The next recession is never like the last one.

44. 下一次衰退绝不会像上一次那样。

45. Remember what Buffett says about progress: "First come the innovators, then come the imitators, then come the idiots."

45. 记住巴菲特说的关于进步:“首先来的是创新者,然后来的是模仿者,最后来的是白痴。”

46. And what Mark Twain says about truth: "A lie can travel halfway around the world while truth is putting on its shoes."


47. And what Marty Whitman says about information: "Rarely do more than three or four variables really count. Everything else is noise."

47. 还有Marty Whitman说的关于信息:“真正重要的变量很少超过三四个。其他一切都是噪音。”

48. The bigger a merger is, the higher the odds it will be a flop. CEOs love empire-building by overpaying for companies.

48. 一项并购的规模越大,其成为一场失败的几率就越高。CEO们喜欢打造商业帝国,为买公司而支付过高的价格。

49. Investments that offer little upside and big downside outnumber those with the opposite characteristics at least 10-to-1.


50. The most boring companies -- toothpaste, food, bolts -- can make some of the best long-term investments. The most innovative, some of the worst.

50. 最乏味的那些公司——牙膏、食品、螺钉——可能成为最佳的长期投资。最具创新的那些,则可能最糟糕。


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